2010: Perry 48, White 43

According to a new Texas Lyceum poll, Republican Gov. Rick Perry leads Democratic challenger Bill White by 5 points, 48 to 43 percent, among likely voters.

Libertarian Kathie Glass comes in at 5 percent, and the Green Party's Deb Shafto got 1 percent. Only 3 percent of likely voters are undecided.

“Bill White is hanging tough against Rick Perry," said Daron Shaw, a professor at the University of Texas who conducted the poll with associate professor Amy Jasperson of the University of Texas at San Antonio. "But with just 12 days before Texans head to the polls for early voting and with just 3 percent of voters undecided in this race, White’s path to victory remains difficult to see.”

White leads Perry 50 to 43 percent among those self-identified independent voters, which any statewide Democrat candidate needs a big showing from. Glass gets 10 percent. The Democrat also leads with "moderate" voters, with a 67-to-22 advantage. But Perry tromps him, 76-17, with conservatives and has locked down 81 percent of the Republican vote, too.

Democrats are not running as close further down the ballot.

Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst is leading Democrat Linda Chavez-Thompson 47 to 30 percent, and Attorney General Greg Abbott leads Democrat Barbara Ann Radnofsky 56 to 29 percent. Compared to the gubernatorial race, these matches have larger groups of undecided voters — 12 percent and 11 percent, respectively.

A Republican has a 41-to-29-percent advantage over a Democrat on a generic congressional ballot, and a 7-point lead, 38 to 31 percent, on a generic statehouse ballot.

One in four voters identifies with the Tea Party, and in a generic race for Congress, a Democrat would get 29 percent from these respondents, a Republican candidate would get 20 percent, and a Tea Party candidate would get 13 percent; the Tea vote comes straight out of the GOP vote.

The poll of 416 likely voters was conducted from Sept. 22-30 and has margin of error is +/- 4.75 percentage points. The survey questions and cross tabs are expected to be made available Thursday.