Texas GOP poised to increase its majorities in the Legislature

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Republicans were poised to expand their majority in the Texas House on Tuesday evening, and appeared on track to flip at least two seats in historically Democratic border districts as South Texas continued its dramatic shift to the right.

If those results hold, the GOP will control at least 88 of 150 seats in the lower chamber when the Legislature reconvenes in January. That margin will give Gov. Greg Abbott “more than enough votes” to finally pass a school voucher bill, he said late Tuesday.

Republican Don McLaughlin, the former mayor of Uvalde, was beating Democrat Cecilia Castellano in House District 80, according to incomplete results late Tuesday. The seat was open following the retirement of Democrat Tracy King.

In Corpus Christi’s District 34, Republican Denise Villalobos was on path to defeat Democrat Solomon Ortiz Jr. in a race to succeed retiring Democrat Abel Herrero.

And in Eagle Pass’ District 74, incumbent Democrat Eddie Morales was trailing Robert Garza. Morales won by 12 points just two years ago.

In the Senate, Republican Adam Hinojosa claimed victory against Sen. Morgan LaMantia, D-Palm Valley, in the only battleground of the upper chamber.

Abbott lauded his party’s likely gains in the Legislature on Tuesday.

“Texans sent a clear message: they want safer streets, a secure border, a strong economy, and the economy to choose the best school for their children,” Abbott said in a statement. “And that’s exactly what these Republican candidates will deliver.”

Abbott is particularly keen to pass education savings accounts, which are taxpayer-supported bank accounts parents can use to subsidize their childrens’ private school tuition. Creating those accounts was one of Abbott’s top legislative priorities that was thwarted by a coalition of rural Republicans and Democrats last year. But Abbott was able to oust many of those Republicans in this year’s primaries by supporting their challengers.

Abbott scheduled a Wednesday news conference at the Kingdom Life Academy, a Christian private school in Tyler, where he is expected to discuss his voucher plans for the upcoming legislative session.

Once members know the makeup of the House, their focus will shift to the 2025 legislative session — and the speaker’s race. Texas House Republican Caucus bylaws call on the Republican caucus to meet in December to endorse a candidate for speaker.

Republican state Rep. David Cook is running against sitting House Speaker Dade Phelan, R-Beaumont, to lead the lower chamber. Cook claims to have support from a majority of the incoming Republican caucus, although a speaker candidate must achieve three-fifths support within the caucus to earn its official backing.

Cook, a former mayor of Mansfield, defeated Democrat Ebony M. Turner in District 96 on Tuesday, according to The Associated Press.

Also on Tuesday, Republicans were holding on to two seats Democrats had hoped to flip. Two were in Bexar County. Marc LaHood, who ousted incumbent Republican Steve Allison in the spring Republican primary, was leading Democrat Laurel Jordan Swift in District 121. John Lujan was narrowly beating Democratic challenger Kristian Carranza in District 118.

Democrats were falling short where they hoped to defeat incumbent Republicans in suburban seats elsewhere. In Dallas County, it appeared Republican Angie Chen Button would survive her faceoff with Averie Bishop in District 112. Also in Dallas County, incumbent Morgan Meyer was winning over Democrat Elizabeth Ginsberg in District 108.

In Harris County, Republican incumbent Lacey Hull was easily beating back a challenge from Democrat Stephanie Morales in District 138. Caroline Harris Davila, R-Round Rock, cruised to a second term in District 52 over Democrat Jennie Berkholz, according to The AP.

Tuesday did not appear to be a complete disappointment for Democrats. The party was holding on to the District 115 seat, vacated by Julie Johnson who was elected to the U.S. House. Democrat Cassandra Hernandez was leading over Republican John Jun in the open contest.

Democrat Mihaela Plesa, who eked out a win in her District 70 race in 2022, was again narrowly leading in the race for the Dallas County seat against Republican Steve Kinard, who was one of 48 Republican nominees Cook says are supporting him in the race for speaker.

In McLennan County, Republican Pat Curry won both the general election and the special election to succeed retired Republican state Rep. Doc Anderson and will be sworn in later this month, according to The AP. That will make him the senior member within a freshman class that is shaping up to be at least 26 Republicans strong, the largest class of Republican freshmen since 2013.