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Texas turnout rate slightly down after first three days of early voting

State data shows just two of Texas’ most populous counties have surpassed their voter turnout rate in 2020.

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Voters line up outside of the Rosenberg Annex as early voting begins in Texas on Monday, Oct. 21, 2024, in Rosenberg.
Voters in Rosenberg line up outside of the Rosenberg Annex as early voting begins in Texas on Monday. Fort Bend County, which includes Rosenberg, is one of only two of the state's most populous counties to see an increase in their voter turnout rate during the first three days of early voting. Credit: Annie Mulligan for The Texas Tribune

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Turnout among Texas voters is slightly down this fall compared to the record-setting 2020 presidential election, according to a Texas Tribune analysis of state data.

More than 2.8 million Texans this year have either voted in person during the first three days of early voting or have returned their ballot by mail. That’s 15.1% of all registered voters. In 2020, 15.7% of registered voters went to the polls or turned in their ballot during the same period in 2020.

Texas has more registered voters than ever: 18.6 million, an increase of about 1.7 million since 2020. Voter turnout during that election ended at about 67% — a modern-day record for the Lone Star State, known for low voter participation.

Early voting began Monday. The last day to vote early is Nov. 1. Texans must return their absentee ballot to their county in person or have their ballot postmarked by Nov. 5, Election Day.

There are caveats to early vote data. It can be incomplete — each county self-reports to the state. And Texas is offering two weeks of early voting in 2024 compared to an extended three weeks in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. There was also a greater emphasis on mail-in ballots four years ago.

Just two of the state’s most populous counties — Denton and Fort Bend — have broken their turnout records during the first three days of early voting, the Tribune found. Meanwhile, Dallas, El Paso and Harris counties have seen a drop.

That should be a warning sign for the Texas Democrats, said Matthew Wilson, a political science professor at Southern Methodist University.

“If I were a Democratic adviser, that would give me some concern,” Wilson said.

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Another warning sign for Democrats, who have long hoped to gain a foothold in a state dominated by Republicans, is the voting history of early voters.

More Republicans than Democrats appear to be voting early based on their voting history, said Derek Ryan, a veteran consultant and adviser to GOP campaigns. According to his tracking, 1.1 million voters who cast their ballot during the first three days of early voting have previously voted in a Republican primary. That compared to 715,180 voters who participated in a Democratic primary.

At this point in 2020, Republicans and Democrats made up about the same percentage of early vote, according to Ryan's analysis. Meanwhile, in both 2020 and 2024, about a quarter of the early vote was cast by people with no history of voting in a partisan primary election in Texas.

Other states are seeing an increase in Republicans voting early, a reversal of 2020 when former President Donald Trump cast doubt on the process and encouraged his voters to only go to the polls on Election Day.

Texas does not track voter registration by party. Using voting history in political party primaries offers a proxy during a general election.

“The signs here in Texas seem to be pointing that things are going well for Republicans,” Ryan said.

Ryan said he expected the final turnout of this election to be between 2016 and 2020.

“Both parties have a lot of work left over the early voting period and on Election Day to get some of the people who are probably solidly party voters but just may not be as likely to turn out,” Ryan said.

Voting FAQ: 2024 Elections

  • When is the next election? What dates do I need to know?

    Election Day for the general election is November 5, and early voting will run from Oct. 21 to Nov. 1. The deadline to register to vote and/or change your voter registration address is Oct. 7. Applications to vote by mail must be received by your county of residence – not postmarked – by Oct. 25.

  • What’s on the ballot for the general election?

    In addition to the president, eligible Texans have the opportunity to cast their ballots for many Texas officials running for office at the federal, state and local levels.
    This includes representatives in the U.S. and Texas houses and the following elected offices:
    -1 U.S Senator (Ted Cruz)
    - 1 of 3 Railroad Commissioners
    - 15 State Senators
    - 7 State Board of Education members
    - 3 members of the Texas Supreme Court
    - 3 members of the Texas Court of Criminal Appeals
    - 5 Chief Justices and various justices for Texas Courts of Appeals

    Lower-level judges and local county offices will also appear on the ballot:
    - Various district judges, including on criminal and family courts
    - County Courts at Law
    - Justices of the Peace
    - District Attorneys
    - County Attorneys
    - Sheriffs
    - Constables
    - Tax Assessor-Collectors

  • How do I make sure I’m registered to vote?

    You can check to see if you’re registered and verify your information through the Texas Secretary of State’s website. You’ll need one of the following three combinations to log in: Your Texas driver’s license number and date of birth. Your first and last names, date of birth and county you reside in. Your date of birth and Voter Unique Identifier, which appears on your voter registration certificate.

  • What if I missed the voter registration deadline?

    You must be registered to vote in a Texas county by Oct. 7 to vote in the Nov. 5 presidential election. You can still register for other elections.
    If you’re registered but didn’t update your address by the deadline, you may still be able to vote at your previous voting location or on a limited ballot. (Voters are typically assigned precincts based on where they live. In most major counties, voters can vote anywhere on Election Day, but some counties require you vote within your precinct. If that is the case, you may have to return to your previous precinct. See which counties allow countywide Election Day voting here. You can usually find your precinct listed on your voter registration certificate or on when checking your registration online.)
    If you moved from one county to another, you may be able to vote on a ballot limited to the elections you would qualify to vote in at both locations, such as statewide races. However, limited ballots are only available during early voting. Find your county election official here and contact them to ask about or request a limited ballot.

  • What can I do if I have questions about voting?

    You can contact your county elections official or call the Texas Secretary of State's helpline at 1-800-252-VOTE (8683). A coalition of voting rights groups is also helping voters navigate election concerns through the 866-OUR-VOTE (687-8683) voter-protection helpline. The coalition also has hotlines available for voters who speaker other languages or have accessibility needs.
    For help in Spanish, call 888-VE-Y-VOTA or 888-839-8682.
    For help in Asian languages, call 888-API-VOTE or 888-274-8683.
    For help in Arabic, call 888-YALLA-US or 888-925-5287.
    For help in American Sign Language through a video, call 301-818-VOTE or 301-818-8683.
    For help from Disability Rights Texas, call 888-796-VOTE or 888-796-8683.

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Disclosure: Southern Methodist University have been financial supporters of The Texas Tribune, a nonprofit, nonpartisan news organization that is funded in part by donations from members, foundations and corporate sponsors. Financial supporters play no role in the Tribune's journalism. Find a complete list of them here.

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