Republicans want to flip this last competitive South Texas senate seat

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Texas State Sen. Morgan LaMantia of South Padre Island won her seat in 2022 by just 659 votes — a margin so close that her opponent asked for a recount.

The Democrat defeated Republican Adam Hinojosa, an owner of several small businesses, to serve the rest of retired Sen. Eddie Lucio Jr’s unfinished term. Two years later, LaMantia is running to serve for a full term — and Hinojosa is back for a rematch in what is the single competitive race in the deeply conservative Texas state senate.

This year, there are different political dynamics, such as the race being in a presidential year, which is expected to boost voter turnout. Democrats are hoping for a surge of enthusiasm for voters looking to support Vice President Kamala Harris, and Republicans are hoping to build on inroads they’ve made in recent years winning over Latino voters to carry Hinojosa over the top.

In 2021, House District 27 was redrawn by the Legislature to make it more competitive for the GOP. President Joe Biden would have won the area by 4.6 percentage points over Donald Trump, compared to 15.7 percentage points before it was redrawn.

“The dynamics of the district have changed,” said Mark Kaswan, a University of Texas Rio Grande Valley political science associate professor.

The district, specifically Brownsville, has seen economic and population growth because of SpaceX and the LNG development. Kaswan added that, in theory, urbanization would most likely help state Democrats. However, the state GOP has logged historic gains in South Texas in the last couple of elections, as well as in urban areas, with Trump's growing support among Latinos.

The Texas Senate currently has 19 Republicans and 12 Democrats — so the race will not change the political balance. But a Hinojosa victory would be a major symbolic victory for Republican Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick, who has an iron grip on the chamber, and to other hard-line conservatives hoping to push the Legislature even further to the right.

In 2022, Republicans were banking on the red wave to help them make some gains in the long-blue region. Despite that effort largely falling flat, LaMantia said she learned not to take the seat for granted.

“Someone once told me that you either run unopposed or you run scared,” LaMantia said. “We are not slowing down. We are keeping our foot on the gas, and I'm not taking for granted or leaving anything on the table."

Hinojosa raised an impressive haul of more than $1 million in the last filing period, including about $9,500 from Gov. Greg Abbott. But LaMantia’s family — which owns a beer distribution business — has loaned her campaign more than $4 million this cycle, including $2.5 million last month alone, allowing her to vastly outspend Hinojosa, according to their campaign finance reports.

Hinojosa didn’t respond to multiple requests for an interview but told a local news station that voters should back him because he is Christian and a Republican, which makes him a better representative of the district's values.

“We’ve got a senator now who’s got a voting record. So I just encourage everybody to review that and know which of us better represents your South Texas values.” Hinojosa told CBS 4 in the Rio Grande Valley.

Hinojosa has also attacked LaMantia’s voting record in TV ads and at campaign events; a section on his campaign website details how LaMantia voted on some major legislation last year, labeling her as “BAD FOR SOUTH TEXAS.” He points out that LaMantia voted against various border security bills and legislation opposed by LGBTQ+ groups, such as a bill to prevent minors from accessing trans care. Her bills were consistent with the majority of House Democrats.

LaMantia said she was able to help the Valley in the session. She pointed to a federally qualified health center pilot program that expands medical care to uninsured Texans, and passing legislation to allow for a study that examines the costs and benefits of creating more drainage for flood-prone areas of south Texas.

Abortion has also been a flash point in the race – Hinojosa received the endorsement of Lucio Jr., who held the South Texas senate for three decades. Lucio Jr. is a conservative Democrat who broke with his party to oppose abortion and support school vouchers, endearing him to Patrick, who oversees the chamber.

Lucio Jr. endorsed LaMantia as his successor in the 2022 Democratic primary. Now, he says Hinojosa is the best fit to represent the Brownsville-Corpus Christi district, focusing on their differences in abortion.

“Adam’s pro-life positions align with mine, the Roman Catholic Church, Texas pro-life Christian churches, pro-life organizations, and I firmly believe with most of Senate District 27’s constituents,” Lucio Jr. said in a statement.

LaMantia supports increasing access to abortion. She voted against a bill that would ban charter schools from doing business with abortion providers last session. She told the Texas Tribune that she and Lucio Jr. have “a really great relationship, but he's gotta do what he has to do.”

“It's not going to slow us down or change our path or our plan in any way…We're going to win this election, and after that, I am glad to work with him or anybody else that is putting SD 27 first,” she said.

A few days later, Lucio Jr.’s son, Eddie Lucio III, a former state representative whose politics were more progressive than his father’s, endorsed LaMantia.

“As a former member of the Texas Legislature, I’ve seen firsthand what effective leadership looks like and how an elected member must conduct themselves to truly serve their district,” Lucio III said in his news release.

A different wrinkle in the only competitive Texas Senate race is Green Party candidate Robin Lee Vargas.

This is her first time running for public office. With this bid, she hopes to establish a foothold for the Green Party and help other party candidates in the valley. When asked what she plans to do if she wins the seat, she pointed to the party platform.

Earlier this month, Green Party presidential candidate Jill Stein made a campaign stop in McAllen. Stein last ran for president in 2016. National Democrats have ramped up attacks on Stein as fears of her playing spoiler increase as Vice President Kamala Harris is in a toss-up with Trump as election day approaches. With this state race only decided by a few hundred votes last time around, Vargas could be seen as playing the same role.

Kaswan said a Green Party candidate might not have the same effect in this race since voters who typically Green Party might not vote for LaMantia in the first place.

“Of course, in 2000, everybody blamed Ralph Nader for Al Gore's loss,” said Kaswan. “The Green Party's response to that is ‘well, you just didn't win those voters.’”