Colin Allred narrows gap in Texas Senate race, but can he win?

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WASHINGTON — Democrats are closing the gap in their uphill campaign to unseat U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz, with polls showing improvement for Democratic U.S. Rep. Colin Allred and national Democrats’ spending in the race a month ahead of Election Day.

For the first time this race, Allred pulled ahead of Cruz in a statewide poll last month, and he continues to poll within a margin of error with Cruz. National Democrats announced Texas would be included in a multi-million-dollar ad buy last week. Allred is consistently outraising Cruz, bringing in more than $1 million in a day twice in the third quarter.

Allred has also built a bipartisan coalition, securing the support of both his party’s left-wing bigwigs and prominent Republicans who have soured on Cruz. This week, U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders and U.S. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez both encouraged voters in Texas to turnout for Allred. Former U.S. Reps. Liz Cheney and Adam Kinzinger, who both were on the House committee investigating the Jan. 6 Capitol attack, have endorsed Allred.

Independent race ratings groups have taken notice. Cook Political Report shifted its rating for the race from “Likely Republican” to “Lean Republican” on Tuesday. Inside Elections shifted its rating from “Likely Republican” to “Lean Republican” last week.

“Allred’s unique coalition of voters, the resources and work of his campaign, and Cruz’s weaknesses all put the Texas Senate race in play,” Allred campaign manager Paige Hutchinson wrote in a memo Tuesday. “There is more work to do as we continue sharing Allred’s message, mobilizing our supporters and reminding voters what they don’t like about Cruz – but the Allred campaign is entering the final weeks of the race in the strongest possible position to secure victory.”

An uphill fight

Allred still has a challenge ahead of him. He is running against one of Republicans’ best known and best funded candidates in a state that hasn’t elected a Democrat into statewide office in more than 20 years. Cruz is one of the most adored candidates among Texas conservatives along with Gov. Greg Abbott, while Allred has had to battle his low name recognition outside of Dallas all cycle.

And at the top of the ticket, former President Donald Trump continues to poll ahead of Vice President Kamala Harris in Texas. That could give down-ballot Republicans a leg up, though Allred has higher approval in the state than Harris and has strategically kept the presidential campaign at a distance.

None of the positive developments for Allred are unexpected within Cruz’s camp. Cruz has acknowledged he elicits exceptional resentment among Democrats across the country, who have been pouring money into the Texas race. Allred has been blanketing the state in ads for months to increase his name recognition, while Cruz, who is nearly universally known, has preserved a healthy war chest to unleash more ads closer to Election Day.

Democrats had spent $37 million in aired ads ahead of mid-September, whereas Republicans had spent $12 million, according to ad tracking firm AdImpact.

Cruz has said for months that he would run a competitive race, dead set on not repeating the surprisingly close challenge by former U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke in 2018. O’Rourke came within 3 percentage points of unseating Cruz in that race.

“Ted has been running like he's 5 points behind since the day he got in the race, even though he's been five or 10 points ahead,” Sen. Steve Daines, chair of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, said this summer. “That's exactly the kind of candidate you want to have for senator running for reelection.”

A worthy competitor

Still, Allred has made considerable progress since earlier in the cycle. He was often polling double digits behind Cruz around the primaries last spring. Most major polls since August now show Allred within 5 points of Cruz, with one Morning Consult poll in late September having him 1 point ahead of Cruz. Allred has gone from only 60% of Texans being able to form an opinion about him in August to 75%, according to a late-September poll by Public Policy Polling.

Allred also has money on his side. He closed out the second quarter with $1.2 million more than Cruz including their official campaigns and associated PACs, though that total also includes money raised for other candidates. By their main campaign committees alone, Allred outraised Cruz by more than $14 million by the end of the second quarter. The third quarter — when political fundraising usually increases exponentially — closed at the end of September, and candidates will disclose their fundraising Oct. 15.

Earlier in the cycle, it was unclear how committed national Democrats would be in supporting Allred’s run. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee picked Texas as one of its top flip targets this year, but a long roster of difficult-to-defend incumbents were higher priority for the group, including in Montana and Ohio. The DSCC has been pouring money into Montana in particular, where Sen. Jon Tester must fight an independently rich Republican opponent Tim Sheehy in a state that Trump won by more than 16 points.

But in a fresh sign of interest, the DSCC announced a multi-million dollar investment in Texas last month, including an ad focusing on abortion access. Democrats also placed $6.3 million in reservations for new advertisements in the race at the end of September, according to AdImpact.

The money going to Texas is largely a testament to the DSCC’s wealth relative to its Republican counterpart. Democrats enjoyed a cash infusion after Harris took over the presidential ticket this summer. The party still is prioritizing its incumbents, and will likely not be diverting from Montana to push for flip opportunities, no matter how promising.

“Democrats are fighting like hell for their incumbents,” said Tory Gavito, president of Democratic donor network Way to Win. “This is not a zero-sum game.”

Texas’ scale could work to the advantage of the state’s Democrats when it comes to advertising. Montana, with a population of a million, has a much smaller media market than Texas, with more than 30 million people.

“One more ad on top of millions of ads in a state like Montana, where the media markets are slim or slimmer than here, does have diminishing returns in terms of impact,” Gavito said.

How has Texas shifted?

Cruz’s campaign has been able to lean on the dominance of conservatism in the state. The state voted for Trump with a margin of more than 5 points in 2020. The Harris campaign is not viewing Texas as a battleground this cycle, focusing instead on more easily attainable swing states.

Cruz’s attacks on Allred have portrayed the congressman as aligned with the most progressive wings of the party, noting he has voted faithfully with his party’s leadership when it was in the majority, though Allred is running as a moderate Democrat.

But as demographics in the state shift with a growing moderate, diverse and suburban population, both candidates are making plays for the center. Cruz launched a group of Democrats for Cruz in the spring, and Allred announced a coalition of Republicans for Allred with Kinzinger on Wednesday.

“They're calling it the Kamala effect,” O’Rourke said last week during a campaign stop with Second Gentleman Doug Emhoff. “Young people are getting registered to vote in record numbers.”

Since O’Rourke’s near victory in 2018, Republicans have won by larger margins in statewide races, including by nearly 10 points in the 2020 race between Sen. John Cornyn and Democrat MJ Hegar. O’Rourke lost his 2022 gubernatorial race against Abbott by 11 points.

Even if Allred doesn’t win, the movement to make Texas competitive could be a positive indicator for Democrats amid a bleak trend over the last six years, Gavito said.

“Success is not Colin’s win or loss,” Gavito said. “Success is the state moving forward and the electorate shifting.”