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2024 Texas Elections

Harris shrinks Trump’s lead in Texas, Allred within striking distance of Cruz, poll finds

The poll is among the first to measure where things stand in Texas since President Joe Biden dropped his reelection bid last month.

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Vice President and Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris, her running mate Minnesota Governor Tim Walz nearby, as she is filmed for a live broadcast into Chicago's Democratic National Convention (DNC), after delegates of each state delegation ended the roll call to once again nominate her as presidential nominee, during her rally in Milwaukee, Wisconsin on August 20, 2024.
Vice President and Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris, her running mate Minnesota Governor Tim Walz nearby, at a rally in Milwaukee, Wisconsin on Aug. 20, 2024. Credit: REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque/File Photo

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Vice President Kamala Harris trails former President Donald Trump by 5 percentage points in Texas, shaving off nearly half the Republican nominee’s one-time advantage over President Joe Biden from earlier this year, according to a new poll released Thursday.

The survey, conducted earlier this month by the University of Houston’s Hobby School of Public Affairs, is among the first to measure where things stand in Texas since Biden dropped his reelection bid last month. In June, the same pollster found that Trump led Biden by nearly 9 percentage points.

The latest survey also recorded a 2-point lead for U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz over his Democratic challenger, U.S. Rep. Colin Allred — virtually unchanged from the June poll. In the new survey, 46.6% of likely voters said they intend to vote for the Republican senator, compared to 44.5% for Allred.

Allred, a Dallas Democrat serving his third term in Congress, is seen as one of his party’s few legitimate hopes for flipping a GOP-controlled Senate seat, in a year where Democrats are largely playing defense across the Senate electoral battlefield.

Allred cited the poll while addressing the Texas delegation Thursday morning at the Democratic National Convention, dismissing Cruz’s modest lead as within the margin of error.

“This is a race that's going to come down to the things that we do together over the next 75 days,” Allred said. “I'm going to be giving you every single thing I've got.”

Cruz is up for reelection for the first time since he defeated Democrat Beto O’Rourke by just 2.6 percentage points in 2018 — Democrats’ closest statewide margin in decades.

At the presidential level, independent voters appeared to drive much of the shift toward Harris: Trump now leads among that voting bloc by just 2 percentage points, down from a 24-point edge in June. Harris also gained ground among women, who now favor her by a 6-point margin after narrowly backing Trump in the Hobby School’s earlier poll.

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Trump’s 4.9-point lead in the Hobby School’s latest poll is similar to the 5.6-point margin by which he carried the state over Biden in 2020.

Harris campaign chair Jen O’Malley Dillon suggested earlier this week that the campaign does not intend to make much of a play for Texas. She noted the high cost of advertising in the state and suggested it would divert resources from other more closely contested states.

“At the end of the day, our responsibility as a presidential campaign is to ensure we get to 270 [electoral votes],” O’Malley Dillon said, fielding audience questions for an event at the Democratic National Convention. “I would love to get to a bigger number than that, but that is all we care about."

Even if Democrats lose atop the ticket, a narrow result could boost the party’s candidates in critical down-ballot races for Congress, the Texas Legislature and scores of local offices. In 2018, when O’Rourke nearly ousted Cruz, Democrats picked up 12 state House seats and flipped two congressional districts, including one where Allred unseated a longtime GOP member of Congress.

Matthew Choi contributed to this report.

Voting FAQ: 2024 Elections

  • When is the next election? What dates do I need to know?

    Election Day for the general election is November 5, and early voting will run from Oct. 21 to Nov. 1. The deadline to register to vote and/or change your voter registration address is Oct. 7. Applications to vote by mail must be received by your county of residence – not postmarked – by Oct. 25.

  • What’s on the ballot for the general election?

    In addition to the president, eligible Texans have the opportunity to cast their ballots for many Texas officials running for office at the federal, state and local levels.
    This includes representatives in the U.S. and Texas houses and the following elected offices:
    -1 U.S Senator (Ted Cruz)
    - 1 of 3 Railroad Commissioners
    - 15 State Senators
    - 7 State Board of Education members
    - 3 members of the Texas Supreme Court
    - 3 members of the Texas Court of Criminal Appeals
    - 5 Chief Justices and various justices for Texas Courts of Appeals

    Lower-level judges and local county offices will also appear on the ballot:
    - Various district judges, including on criminal and family courts
    - County Courts at Law
    - Justices of the Peace
    - District Attorneys
    - County Attorneys
    - Sheriffs
    - Constables
    - Tax Assessor-Collectors

  • How do I make sure I’m registered to vote?

    You can check to see if you’re registered and verify your information through the Texas Secretary of State’s website. You’ll need one of the following three combinations to log in: Your Texas driver’s license number and date of birth. Your first and last names, date of birth and county you reside in. Your date of birth and Voter Unique Identifier, which appears on your voter registration certificate.

  • What if I missed the voter registration deadline?

    You must be registered to vote in a Texas county by Oct. 7 to vote in the Nov. 5 presidential election. You can still register for other elections.
    If you’re registered but didn’t update your address by the deadline, you may still be able to vote at your previous voting location or on a limited ballot. (Voters are typically assigned precincts based on where they live. In most major counties, voters can vote anywhere on Election Day, but some counties require you vote within your precinct. If that is the case, you may have to return to your previous precinct. See which counties allow countywide Election Day voting here. You can usually find your precinct listed on your voter registration certificate or on when checking your registration online.)
    If you moved from one county to another, you may be able to vote on a ballot limited to the elections you would qualify to vote in at both locations, such as statewide races. However, limited ballots are only available during early voting. Find your county election official here and contact them to ask about or request a limited ballot.

  • What can I do if I have questions about voting?

    You can contact your county elections official or call the Texas Secretary of State's helpline at 1-800-252-VOTE (8683). A coalition of voting rights groups is also helping voters navigate election concerns through the 866-OUR-VOTE (687-8683) voter-protection helpline. The coalition also has hotlines available for voters who speaker other languages or have accessibility needs.
    For help in Spanish, call 888-VE-Y-VOTA or 888-839-8682.
    For help in Asian languages, call 888-API-VOTE or 888-274-8683.
    For help in Arabic, call 888-YALLA-US or 888-925-5287.
    For help in American Sign Language through a video, call 301-818-VOTE or 301-818-8683.
    For help from Disability Rights Texas, call 888-796-VOTE or 888-796-8683.

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Congress Politics Colin Allred Joe Biden Ted Cruz