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Federal forecasters predict the highest number of storms ever for 2024 season

Wind changes caused by the La Niña climate pattern and warmer-than-average ocean temperatures are expected to be major drivers to this year’s hurricane season.

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A load of evacuees in the back of Chris Ginter's monster truck in Houston on Tuesday, Aug 29, 2017. Ginter helped evacuate people from their flooded neighborhood near the Buffalo Bayou.
Evacuees ride in the back of Chris Ginter's truck in Houston on Aug 29, 2017 after Hurricane Harvey caused catastrophic floods along the Texas coast. Ginter helped evacuate people from their flooded neighborhood near the Buffalo Bayou. Credit: Michael Stravato for The Texas Tribune

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Federal forecasters are predicting between 17 and 25 named storms will form this hurricane season — the highest number of storms the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has ever predicted before the start of the season on June 1.

The agency announced Thursday at a press conference that Texas and the rest of the Gulf and East coasts are most likely to see an “above-average” hurricane season in 2024.

NOAA defines an average Atlantic hurricane season as one with 14 named storms, of which three are stronger hurricanes, based on data from 1991 to 2020.

Of the storms predicted this year, four to seven could be hurricanes rated Category 3 or higher, meaning they will have wind speeds of at least 111 miles per hour.

NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad said the “extraordinarily high, record-warm water temperatures” in the Atlantic are energizing the ocean, which can fuel storm development. Warming seas are linked to climate change, which can cause stronger hurricanes and heavier rains.

How to prepare for a hurricane

  • How do I prepare for a hurricane?

    Make sure you’re signed up for emergency alerts from your city or county. Check for hurricane watches and warnings from the National Hurricane Center, including their latest updates on X.

    Make a household evacuation plan and plan your evacuation routes. If you have pets, plan ahead of time how to take care of them during a storm. Build a disaster kit with food and essentials, including with up-to-date personal documents and insurance policies. Take photos or videos of your property before the hurricane hits.

    Consider purchasing a generator, installing carbon monoxide alarms or storm shutters. Prepare the exterior of your household by sealing any roof openings and regularly cutting down nearby weak branches or trees.

    Texans who rely on electricity for medical reasons can apply for a critical care status to get extra notifications ahead of power interruptions or suspensions of service. Texans with disabilities or who require additional medical assistance during an emergency can also sign up for the State of Texas Emergency Assistance Registry to note that for emergency responders.

  • What should I do when a hurricane is approaching?

    Fill up water containers with drinking water and fill up baths and sinks with water. Stock up on food or snacks in case of future power outages.

    Watch and follow for evacuation instructions from local officials and prepare your car in case of evacuation. Fill your tank with gas and protect your car under a cover or garage if possible. If you have time, clear your yard and protect your windows with storm shutters or plywood.

    If you evacuate, unplug your appliances and turn off gas, electricity and water if time allows.

  • What should I do after a hurricane hits?

    Stay away from flood waters and damaged power lines. Don’t enter damaged buildings. Take photos and document damages to your home or property.

    Government and community resources may be available to help with recovery. Organizations like the American Red Cross, Salvation Army and local volunteer organizations can help you find food, shelter and supplies, as well as even assist you with clean-up efforts.

    After a disaster, a disaster declaration from the governor and president may free up federal funds for recovery assistance from the Federal Emergency Management Agency. People cannot receive disaster and insurance assistance for the same damages, so insured Texans should file claims through their existing policies before applying for FEMA assistance.

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Another important factor influencing this year’s hurricane season is La Niña, a climate pattern that causes surface ocean water temperatures to cool and tends to lessen wind speeds, allowing more storms to develop.

“La Niña can lead to weaker trade winds ... this type of environment can be more conducive for tropical cyclone development,” Spinrad said.

Hurricane season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30, though storms can also form before and after that time frame.

The Texas coast is vulnerable to the impacts of storms, which are aggravated by rising sea levels. According to Spinrad, during last year’s hurricane season, tropical cyclones caused more than $4 billion in damages, even with most Atlantic tropical activity remaining offshore and not striking land.

“The key this year as in any year is to get prepared and stay prepared,” Spinrad said. “It's the best way to reduce risk, especially the risk of potential loss of life.”

Ken Graham, the director of NOAA's National Weather Service, said residents should plan a potential evacuation route, create a disaster supply kit and consider buying home and flood insurance.

“You can't wait ‘til the storm surfaces because you may not have the time,” he said. “Then you're competing to get water. You're getting in the long lines for evacuations, the traffic. So the earlier you can prepare the better.”

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Maria Probert Hermosillo contributed to this report.

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