Analysis: A Look at Texas Voter Preferences by Political District

As the presidential political season starts in Texas, here's a look — based on the results in past general elections — at how the state's congressional and statehouse districts stack up for the candidates from both parties.

By Ross Ramsey

Oct. 2, 20156 AM Central

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As the presidential political season heats up in Texas, here's a look — based on the Texas results in the past two general elections for president — at how the state's congressional and statehouse districts stack up for the candidates from both parties. Remember what they say about stock prices while you're browsing this: Past results do not indicate future results, but it's a place to start. It will come as no surprise that most of those political districts were created to keep one party or the other one out of business.

The numbers represent the average results for Republican and Democratic candidates in contested statewide races during the presidential elections in 2008 and 2012. The margin is the difference between those two averages, shown for the state overall and then for each political district. You can see that Republican legislators ordinarily win when their ticket is winning in the the district — but not always.

First up: Congress, where the districts range in strength from the most Republican — the 13th, where the incumbent is Mac Thornberry, R-Clarendon — to the most Democratic — the 30th, where Eddie Bernice Johnson, D-Dallas, holds sway. Texas has only one true swing district that could go either to a Republican or a Democrat, depending on the mood of voters: That's the 23rd Congressional District, where freshman Will Hurd, R-San Antonio, is the incumbent. Click on any of the column headers to sort the results.

2008/2012 Statewide Election Results, by Congressional District

Source: Calculated from Texas Legislative Council data

DISTRICT	INCUMBENT	PARTY	GOP AVG	DEM AVG	MARGIN
13	Thornberry	R	74.7	22.3	R 52.4
11	Conaway	R	73.9	23.0	R 51.0
8	Brady	R	72.8	24.6	R 48.2
19	Neugebauer	R	69.7	27.3	R 42.4
4	Ratcliffe	R	66.9	30.3	R 36.6
1	Gohmert	R	66.8	31.0	R 35.8
36	Babin	R	66.4	31.0	R 35.4
26	Burgess	R	65.1	31.4	R 33.7
12	Granger	R	63.5	33.4	R 30.1
3	Johnson, S.	R	62.9	33.9	R 29.0
2	Poe	R	61.8	35.5	R 26.3
22	Olson	R	60.4	37.3	R 23.0
5	Hensarling	R	60.1	37.2	R 22.9
7	Culberson	R	59.5	38.0	R 21.5
24	Marchant	R	59.1	37.6	R 21.5
21	Smith	R	57.4	38.1	R 19.2
31	Carter	R	56.5	38.9	R 17.6
17	Flores	R	56.8	39.6	R 17.2
25	Williams	R	56.1	39.5	R 16.6
10	McCaul	R	56.3	40.0	R 16.3
32	Sessions	R	56.0	40.9	R 15.1
27	Farenthold	R	55.9	41.0	R 14.8
6	Barton	R	55.7	41.5	R 14.3
0	STATEWIDE	---	54.4	42.6	R 11.7
14	Weber	R	54.6	42.9	R 11.7
23	Hurd	R	48.0	49.0	D 1.1
15	Hinojosa	D	39.4	58.0	D 18.5
20	Castro	D	38.5	58.4	D 20.0
28	Cuellar	D	37.2	59.7	D 22.5
34	Vela	D	36.0	60.9	D 24.9
35	Doggett	D	33.5	62.3	D 28.8
16	O'Rourke	D	33.0	63.5	D 30.6
29	Green, G.	D	31.7	66.2	D 34.5
33	Veasey	D	27.4	70.3	D 43.0
18	Jackson Lee	D	22.3	75.8	D 53.5
9	Green, A.	D	21.8	76.6	D 54.7
30	Johnson, E.B.	D	20.0	78.2	D 58.1

The Senate's most Democratic district is the 13th, where Rodney Ellis, D-Houston, is the incumbent. The 31st Senate District is on the other end of the spectrum; Kel Seliger, R-Amarillo, has the most Republican district in that body. State Sen. Konni Burton, R-Colleyville, has the closest thing to a swing seat. It was Democrat Wendy Davis' post until the 2014 elections.

2008/2012 Statewide Election Results, by Texas Senate District

Source: Calculated from Texas Legislative Council data

DISTRICT	INCUMBENT	PARTY	GOP AVG	DEM AVG	MARGIN
19	Uresti	D	41.5	55.5	D 14.1
20	Hinojosa	D	39.7	57.5	D 17.8
15	Whitmire	D	38.6	59.0	D 20.4
21	Zaffirini	D	37.2	59.0	D 21.8
14	Watson	D	34.9	59.1	D 24.2
26	Menendez	D	35.6	61.2	D 25.6
29	Rodriguez	D	31.8	64.7	D 32.9
6	Garcia	D	31.1	66.8	D 35.8
27	Lucio	D	29.5	67.5	D 38.0
23	West	D	18.5	79.7	D 61.2
13	Ellis	D	15.8	82.7	D 66.9
0	STATEWIDE	---	54.4	42.6	R 11.7
31	Seliger	R	75.7	21.3	R 54.4
30	Estes	R	70.2	26.6	R 43.6
28	Perry	R	68.9	27.9	R 41.1
3	Nichols	R	67.7	29.7	R 37.9
24	Fraser	R	66.4	30.2	R 36.2
1	Eltife	R	66.5	31.2	R 35.2
4	Creighton	R	66.4	31.3	R 35.1
7	Bettencourt	R	65.9	31.9	R 34.0
12	Nelson	R	63.8	32.9	R 30.9
22	Birdwell	R	63.4	33.7	R 29.7
18	Kolkhorst	R	63.2	34.5	R 28.7
25	Campbell	R	62.1	34.2	R 27.9
11	Taylor, L.	R	61.3	35.9	R 25.4
8	Taylor, V.	R	60.7	36.1	R 24.5
5	Schwertner	R	59.6	36.0	R 23.5
2	Hall	R	59.2	37.9	R 21.2
17	Huffman	R	58.3	39.2	R 19.1
9	Hancock	R	57.2	39.6	R 17.7
16	Huffines	R	56.2	40.8	R 15.4
10	Burton	R	51.8	45.7	R 6.1

Finally, the Texas House, with its 150 seats, makes for a very big chart — and more varied and competitive districts. As with the state's senators and its federal representatives, most state House members face more political hazards in their own primaries than in the general election, but there are some House districts — almost a dozen — where candidates from both parties stand a reasonable chance of success.

2008/2012 Statewide Election Results, by Texas House District

Source: Calculated from Texas Legislative Council data

District	INCUMBENT	PARTY	GOP AVG	DEM AVG	MARGIN
86	Smithee	R	79.1	18.0	R 61.1
61	King, P.	R	76.5	20.5	R 55.9
82	Craddick	R	76.4	20.7	R 55.7
16	Metcalf	R	76.4	21.3	R 55.1
60	Keffer	R	75.9	21.0	R 54.9
73	Miller, D.	R	74.9	21.5	R 53.4
88	King, K.	R	75.1	22.2	R 52.9
15	Keough	R	74.5	22.7	R 51.8
83	Burrows	R	73.8	23.4	R 50.4
130	Fletcher	R	74.0	23.7	R 50.3
68	Springer	R	73.4	23.9	R 49.5
98	Capriglione	R	72.7	24.2	R 48.4
87	Price	R	72.3	24.5	R 47.9
3	Bell Jr.	R	72.6	25.2	R 47.3
53	Murr	R	71.9	24.8	R 47.1
81	Landgraf	R	71.2	25.8	R 45.4
58	Burns	R	71.0	25.7	R 45.3
71	King, S.	R	70.7	26.2	R 44.5
72	Darby	R	70.1	26.5	R 43.7
59	Sheffield	R	70.1	26.6	R 43.5
2	Flynn	R	70.1	26.9	R 43.2
63	Parker	R	69.9	26.8	R 43.1
33	Turner, Scott	R	69.6	27.5	R 42.1
13	Schubert	R	69.5	28.1	R 41.4
69	Frank	R	68.6	28.4	R 40.1
10	Wray	R	68.4	28.4	R 40.0
24	Bonnen, G.	R	68.5	28.6	R 39.9
5	Hughes	R	68.4	29.1	R 39.3
4	Spitzer	R	67.9	29.5	R 38.4
128	Smith	R	68.1	29.8	R 38.3
7	Simpson	R	68.0	29.9	R 38.0
20	Farney	R	67.0	29.0	R 38.0
70	Sanford	R	67.4	29.6	R 37.7
6	Schaefer	R	67.7	30.1	R 37.6
19	White, J.	R	67.4	29.9	R 37.5
62	Phillips	R	67.2	29.8	R 37.4
127	Huberty	R	67.5	30.2	R 37.3
133	Murphy	R	67.4	30.3	R 37.1
150	Riddle	R	66.9	30.8	R 36.1
8	Cook	R	66.7	30.7	R 36.0
122	Larson	R	66.5	30.5	R 36.0
11	Clardy	R	66.7	30.9	R 35.8
56	Anderson, C.	R	65.8	31.7	R 34.1
21	Phelan	R	65.7	31.7	R 34.0
106	Fallon	R	65.0	31.9	R 33.1
57	Ashby	R	65.3	32.3	R 33.0
89	Laubenberg	R	64.7	31.9	R 32.8
91	Klick	R	64.7	32.0	R 32.8
44	Kuempel	R	64.4	32.4	R 32.0
18	Otto	R	64.2	32.8	R 31.4
9	Paddie	R	64.4	33.3	R 31.1
99	Geren	R	63.8	32.8	R 31.0
25	Bonnen, D.	R	63.7	33.1	R 30.6
30	Morrison	R	63.8	33.4	R 30.5
1	VanDeaver	R	63.7	33.7	R 30.0
84	Frullo	R	62.5	34.0	R 28.5
28	Zerwas	R	62.8	35.3	R 27.5
129	Paul	R	62.2	35.0	R 27.1
26	Miller, R.	R	62.2	35.6	R 26.6
14	Raney	R	60.6	35.2	R 25.5
126	Harless	R	61.4	36.4	R 25.0
29	Thompson, E.	R	61.0	36.3	R 24.7
55	White, M.	R	60.7	36.0	R 24.7
66	Shaheen	R	60.6	36.4	R 24.1
67	Leach	R	60.1	36.4	R 23.7
121	Straus	R	59.4	37.2	R 22.2
92	Stickland	R	59.0	37.6	R 21.5
94	Tinderholt	R	58.9	37.9	R 21.0
135	Elkins	R	59.1	38.7	R 20.4
138	Bohac	R	58.7	38.8	R 20.0
132	Schofield	R	58.6	39.1	R 19.6
64	Crownover	R	57.6	38.0	R 19.5
93	Krause	R	58.0	38.8	R 19.1
108	Meyer	R	57.8	38.8	R 19.0
97	Goldman	R	57.9	39.2	R 18.7
12	Kacal	R	57.1	40.4	R 16.7
47	Workman	R	55.7	39.1	R 16.7
65	Simmons	R	56.6	40.1	R 16.5
96	Zedler	R	56.9	40.7	R 16.3
85	Stephenson	R	56.9	41.2	R 15.7
134	Davis, S.	R	55.5	41.5	R 14.0
115	Rinaldi	R	55.1	41.6	R 13.5
136	Dale	R	53.1	40.7	R 12.3
17	Cyrier	R	53.9	41.8	R 12.1
0	STATEWIDE	---	54.4	42.6	R 11.7
32	Hunter	R	53.9	42.4	R 11.5
114	Villalba	R	54.4	42.9	R 11.5
112	Button	R	54.2	42.9	R 11.3
52	Gonzales	R	52.6	42.3	R 10.2
45	Isaac	R	51.9	42.8	R 9.1
102	Koop	R	52.6	44.1	R 8.5
113	Burkett	R	51.6	45.8	R 5.8
54	Aycock	R	51.3	45.7	R 5.6
105	Anderson, R.	R	50.8	46.0	R 4.8
107	Sheets	R	50.9	46.4	R 4.5
23	Faircloth	R	48.8	48.5	R 0.3
43	Lozano	R	47.5	49.7	D 2.2
144	Peña	R	45.6	51.9	D 6.3
117	Galindo	R	45.1	52.0	D 6.8
78	Moody	D	42.5	53.7	D 11.2
34	Herrero	D	41.6	55.6	D 14.0
118	Farias	D	40.6	56.5	D 15.9
149	Vo	D	40.6	57.3	D 16.7
48	Howard	D	38.7	55.6	D 16.9
41	Guerra	D	40.1	57.3	D 17.2
148	Farrar	D	39.4	57.0	D 17.5
50	Israel	D	38.0	56.2	D 18.2
74	Nevárez	D	38.5	57.7	D 19.2
125	Rodriguez, J.	D	38.3	58.7	D 20.4
116	Martinez Fischer	D	36.9	59.6	D 22.7
145	Alvarado	D	37.1	60.2	D 23.1
119	Gutierrez	D	37.0	60.1	D 23.1
124	Minjares	D	36.8	60.1	D 23.2
123	Bernal	D	36.4	59.9	D 23.5
101	Turner, C.	D	35.5	62.1	D 26.6
137	Wu	D	35.2	62.0	D 26.8
120	McClendon	D	34.1	63.1	D 29.0
31	Guillen	D	33.9	63.7	D 29.8
77	Marquez	D	32.8	63.2	D 30.5
79	Pickett	D	32.6	64.1	D 31.5
35	Longoria	D	32.4	64.8	D 32.4
38	Lucio III	D	31.4	65.0	D 33.6
22	Deshotel	D	31.9	66.8	D 34.9
103	Anchia	D	29.5	67.2	D 37.7
143	Hernandez Luna	D	29.8	68.3	D 38.4
80	King, T.	D	29.2	67.8	D 38.6
37	Oliveira	D	28.7	67.4	D 38.7
27	Reynolds	D	29.8	68.7	D 38.9
140	Walle	D	28.2	70.1	D 41.9
49	Naishtat	D	24.8	68.0	D 43.2
104	Alonzo	D	26.6	70.8	D 44.3
75	González	D	24.7	72.3	D 47.6
90	Romero Jr.	D	24.5	73.5	D 49.0
39	Martinez	D	24.2	73.5	D 49.3
36	Muñoz Jr.	D	23.9	74.0	D 50.1
42	Raymond	D	22.5	74.0	D 51.5
139	Turner, Sylvester.	D	23.2	75.2	D 52.1
111	Davis, Y.	D	22.8	75.6	D 52.8
95	Collier	D	22.6	75.7	D 53.0
40	Canales	D	21.9	75.7	D 53.9
46	Dukes	D	20.5	74.5	D 54.0
76	Blanco	D	21.3	75.7	D 54.4
100	Johnson	D	21.2	76.5	D 55.3
142	Dutton Jr.	D	20.8	77.9	D 57.1
146	Miles	D	20.5	77.7	D 57.1
147	Coleman	D	19.3	78.2	D 58.9
51	Rodriguez, E.	D	17.0	76.7	D 59.7
109	Giddings	D	18.5	80.0	D 61.4
131	Allen	D	16.4	82.2	D 65.8
141	Thompson, S.	D	12.9	86.0	D 73.1
110	Rose	D	10.9	87.7	D 76.8

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