Inside Intelligence: Leaders, in Conventional Wisdom

Finding a difference of opinion on the top of the ballot runoff races wasn't easy with the insiders this week; they're largely in agreement. Whether they're correct is another matter, but we asked them to predict the outcomes of some of the races.

The short form? They think David Dewhurst will beat Ted Cruz in the Republican primary for U.S. Senate and that Paul Sadler will beat Grady Yarbrough in the Democratic primary for that office.

The insiders chose Christi Craddick and Barry Smitherman to win the Republican runoffs for two seats on the Texas Railroad Commission.

Most think Texas Supreme Court Justice David Medina will fend off a challenge from Houston Judge John Devine in that GOP runoff.

And 58 percent think Sen. Jeff Wentworth of San Antonio will beat Donna Campbell of New Braunfels in the GOP runoff for Wentworth's spot in the Legislature.

We've attached the full set of verbatim comments from this week's participants. Some samples follow.

Enlarge Ben Hasson

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Who do you think would win a Senate runoff held today?

• "The late runoff date rewards the candidate with the greatest intensity of support. That argues in Cruz's favor."

• "Passionate base trumps money."

• "Dewhurst will get 60% of the Leppert vote. Cruz is maxed out and turnout will be high."

• "With the Paul fanatics needing a place to call home, Dewhurst is in for a long, hot summer."

• "Assuming Dallas mainstream voters return to the polls and the Dew holds his base."

• "Money matters in politics"

Who do you think would win a Senate runoff held today?

• "If the Ds had their act together, this run-off wouldn't be necessary. This run-off says more about the state of the Texas Democratic Party than the name ID of either Sadler or Yarbrough."

• "Who would win? Who would win??  This runoff is simply to pick November's loser."

• "I think older Democrats thought they were voting for Ralph."

• "Perfect example of why the Ds are still not ready for prime time when it comes to statewide races."

• "Does it matter?"

Enlarge Ben Hasson

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Who do you think would win a Railroad Commission runoff held today?

• "Television"

• "I sure hope people look to those who've been involved in the business, rather than an attorney."

• "Daddy's money is the best kind of money."

• "Warren needs the time"

Who do you think would win a Railroad Commission runoff held today?

• "Beats me"

• "Insurgency."

• "Smitherman is already doing a GREAT job."

• "Smitherman"

Enlarge Ben Hasson

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Who do you think would win a Supreme Court runoff held today?

• "Medina may suffer the same fate as Xavier Rodriguez."

• "R's don't like Hispanic names"

• "I think Devine's voters will turn out. There's no enthusiasm for Medina."

• "Who?"

Who do you think would win a Texas Senate runoff held today?

• "Nearly two-thirds rejected Wentworth in the primary...that spells trouble for an incumbent"

• "The people want a committed CONSERVATIVE, not a tired politician."

• "Campbell may have peaked. Not sure she's got more votes out there."

• "San Antonio will not give up its Senator for an outsider."

• "Jeff would lose, which is slightly different from Donna winning."

Our thanks to this week's participants: Adam Haynes, Allen Blakemore, Andrew Biar, Andy Sansom, Anthony Haley, Bee Moorhead, Bill Hammond, Billy Howe, Bill Pewitt, Bill Stevens, Bradford Shields, Hugh Brady, Brandon Aghamalian, Bill Ratliff, Bryan Mayes, Bruce Gibson, Bruce Scott, Cathie Adams, Charles Stuart, Chris Britton, Charles Bailey, Cal Jillson, Clyde Alexander, Colin Strother, Craig Murphy, Christopher Shields, Dennis Speight, Dale Laine, Dan Shelley, Darren Whitehurst, David Dunn, Deborah Ingersoll, Dee Simpson, Denise Davis, Daniel Gonzalez, Dominic Giarratani, Mike McKinney, Robert Kepple, Elna Christopher, Andy Brown, Ed Small, Gene Acuna, George Cofer, George Allen, Gardner Pate, Harold Cook, Hector De Leon, Homero Lucero, Jack Gullahorn, Jenny Aghamalian, James LeBas, Jim Henson, Jay Arnold, Jeff Eller, Pete Laney, Jim Grace, Janis Carter, Parker McCollough, John Heasley, Jon Fisher, Jim Sartwelle, Jason Skaggs, Jay Thompson, Julie Shields, June Deadrick, Kathy Miller, Keats Norfleet, Kinnan Golemon, Ken Hodges, Keir Murray, Kerry Cammack, Kraege Polan, Ken Whalen, Lee Woods, Lisa Kaufman, Louis Bacarisse, Larry Soward, Luke Marchant, Luke Legate, Marc Campos, Matt Mackowiak, Michael Grimes, Mark Jones, Michael Quinn Sullivan, Michael Wilt, Nora Del Bosque, Nef Partida, Norman Garza, Mark Sanders, Pat Nugent, Dave Beckwith, Wayne Pierce, Jay Propes, Peck Young, Ramey Ko, Randy Cubriel, Rebecca Bernhardt, Richard Pineda, Richard Dyer, Rebecca Flores, Richard Khouri, Richie Jackson, Rick Cofer, Robert Miller, Bob Strauser, Royce Poinsett, Russ Tidwell, Ruben Longoria, Scott Dunaway, Seth Winick, Shanna Igo, Sandy Kress, Snapper Carr, Stan Schlueter, Jason Stanford, Steve Murdock, Steve Bresnen, Tom Banning, Tom Blanton, Tom Forbes, Thure Cannon, Tom Kleinworth, Tom Phillips, Tom Spilman, Trent Townsend, Tris Castaneda, Trey Trainor, Vilma Luna, Walt Baum, Corbin Casteel, William Chapman, Wil Galloway, Wayne Hamilton, Ware Wendell, Angelo Zottarelli.